Its pretty much expected that Fox News will criticize President Obama.  So you can kind of shrug it off when Sean Hanity and conservative pundits say that Mrs. Obama’s exorbitant trip to Spain sends a bad message at a time when Americans are being asked to pay higher and higher taxes.

Now the British — a country that still has royalty — are piling on, saying in the Telegraph :

“The timing of this lavish European vacation could not have come at a worse moment, when unemployment in America stands at 10 percent, and large numbers of Americans are fighting to survive financially in the wake of the global economic downturn. It sends a message of indifference, even contempt, for the millions of Americans who are struggling just to feed their families on a daily basis and pay the mortgage, while the size of the national debt balloons to Greek-style proportions.”

Obama could take a lesson in ruling — not to mention humility, compassion, and understanding how to interact with us commoners — from the Queen, who understands the role of a ruler far better than our president.

Failing that, he should study history and learn from other rulers who fell out of favor and out of touch with the populace (keep in mind that my last post was about a revolution).  While it is unlikely Obama will end up on the guillotine, it is far more likely that the Federal Government with Obama at its helm will lose both the tacit and overt consent of the governed.

To paraphrase John Locke, a state (or government) that does not enjoy the consent of the governed is illegitimate and lacks legal authority. So in the process of expanding the government’s size, scope and budget — which goes against the will of the majority of the people — President Obama is actually undermining his own administration and diminishing its power.  This will likely have repercussions for years.

An interesting editorial on Investors.com, part of Investor’s Business Daily, speculates that President Obama’s determination to change the course of the country through unpopular legislation forced through congress, the use of Executive Orders, regulatory fiat, and “Chicago-style” politics could spur a second American Revolution.

Captain Dave would hope that we can settle the current dissatisfaction with the country’s political leadership at the ballot box instead.  Should the mid-term elections fail to completely halt the onslaught, the next presidential election is only two years away.  Even so, there are quite a few steps to be taken before we must refresh the tree of liberty with the blood of patriots and tyrants, to paraphrase Thomas Jefferson.

First, there are peaceful protest such as the Tea Party holds.  These let the ruling party know that they do not enjoy the support of the populace and embolden the opposition.  This kind of outlet is good for American politics and may bring some fresh blood into the congressional chambers.

Second, individuals can express their discontent through non-compliance with unconstitutional laws. It would tie the government’s hands, for example, if every company  required to file hundreds of the new 1099 tax forms simply refused to do so.  Think, for example, what would happen if everyone changed their federal withholding to 10 and then on April 15 filed for an extension instead of paying their taxes.  These can be very effective at creating change.

Third, masses of people can participate in large scale civil disobedience, not unlike the Civil Rights protests.  Think lock ins and lie downs, tactics such as blocking traffic on the day of a congressional vote by having 100,000 people lying down in the middle of roads leading to the capital.

Fourth, federal and state employees could refuse to obey an order or directive that is unconstitutional.  After all, why should only the government get to pick and choose what laws it wants to enforce?

Should peaceful and time honored approaches such as these fail to effect change, their are still steps prior to an all-out revolution.  I do not envision 10,000 middle class Americans armed with AR-15s and hunting rifles marching out on a field to meet Federal troops toe to toe.  It is not hard, however, to picture 10,000 angry people across the country becoming motivated to take individual acts against their least favorite bureaucrat, federal agency, or elected official.  This exact scenario was detailed in the book Unintended Consequences by John Ross.  (If you enjoy firearms or freedom, I strongly encourage you to read this book. It is out of print and hard copies are quite expensive, but you can  download this pfd.)

In this type of hidden revolution, a few unconnected patriots take action against the most egregious of the offenders and institutions, all loosely and anonymously coordinated through the Internet. As the Investors.com article states, “The Internet is a large-scale version of the ‘Committees of Correspondence’ that led to the first American Revolution.”  We saw the Internet’s role in protests in Iran, in China, and in other closed countries.  Imagine how powerful it would b in an open country with broadband wireless.  Instant protests, attacks on vulnerable targets, and other revolutionary actions could be organized in online forums, triggered by Twitter, and publicized via Facebook and YouTube.

Revolutions are traditionally the actions of the young and the down trodden, but a closer look will demonstrate that it is truly those who have nothing left to lose that are the most likely to foment revolt.  Take away a man’s job, foreclose on his home, and teach his kids crap in public schools, and he doesn’t have much to lose.  Tax a small business owner so that his profits disappear, burden him with paperwork and regulatory requirements so that he spends more time dealing with the government than with regulators, threaten his livelihood and he does not have much to lose.

Add a dash of rising deficits, a pinch of recession, and you have a recipe for revolution.

This Associated Press article reports that “The U.S. Economy will remain slow deep into next year.”  Really? What was their first clue?  Did they actually have to survey leading economists (45% of whom said the economy was “faltering”) to get this perspective?

Why not ask the millions of unemployed people, most of whom the government no longer counts as unemployed because they have given up looking for work.  Or talk to the 1.5 million folks who were foreclosed in the first half of the year.  Or interview the a small business owners who cannot get financing.  Or, heck, just ask the man on the street who  feels it in his gut and spends a little less as a result.

I guess falling consumer confidence, a drop in “leading indicators,” a rising foreclosure rate, and record government deficits,are not significant enough harbingers of a pending problem for the AP.  (By the way, I have found the Consumer Confidence Index is a tremendously accurate way to predict which way consumer spending, and therefor the economy, will head in the next few months.  It plummeted in June and fell more in July.  Need I say more?)

Perhaps we should not blame the Associated Press for their lack of awareness.  No doubt they have been so busy covering Joe Biden talking about the “Summer of Recovery” that they missed the underlying story.  The real story is that the coming double dip may be so deep that we look back on the lackluster growth of this supposed “Summer of Recovery” with yearning.  Think about that.  Imagine the economy as it is today being considered “the good ol’ days.”

The AP, Reuters and major newspapers keep saying that “no one is predicting a double dip recession,” but that just is not true.  Thousands of analysts, bloggers, and experts are predicting another collapse.  The media is just ignoring them.  Again.

Don’t be caught unawares when the next shoe drops.  Get your preparations in order for a recession that ranges from the same thing we saw in 2008 to a “Road Warrior Depression.”  (I love this term, which evokes an immediate image of a collapsed civilization for folks from my generation.  I don’t know who coined it, but I first  saw it at Infowars.com)

Says Super Solar Flare Could Cause Societal and Economic Collapse

While NASA’s administrator was following the president’s wishes and reaching out to Muslims, some of their scientists were still working.  In fact, they issued a report predicting that a solar flare and geomagnetic storm as strong as one we had back in 1859 or 1921 would cause “extensive societal and economic disruptions.”

A massive solar flare could shutdown much of the electrical grid, casuing 130 million people in the U.S. to lose power for weeks, months or years.

As the article states,  “electric power is the cornerstone technology on which virtually all other infrastructures and services depend.”  In other words, no electricity leads to now fuel being pumped, no water being purified, no communications, no transportation, and so forth.

“Power outages would be accompanied by radio blackouts and satellite malfunctions; telecommunications, GPS navigation, banking and finance, and transportation would all be affected. Some problems would correct themselves with the fading of the storm: radio and GPS transmissions could come back online fairly quickly. Other problems would be lasting: a burnt-out multi-ton transformer, for instance, can take weeks or months to repair. The total economic impact in the first year alone could reach $2 trillion, some 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina or, to use a timelier example, a few TARPs.”

You can read the entire article in NASA’s Science News here:
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/21jan_severespaceweather/

Two recent posts on other blogs have gotten me thinking about riots and massive civil unrest and their impact on us as survivalists and preppers.  Both articles are worth reading:

First, this article from a SurvivalBlog contributor who was a Los Angeles police officer during the Rodney king riots.  He shares some excellent insight into mob mentality, looting, and how criminals use riots opportunistically as cover for other crimes.  (If you do not read SurvivalBlog.com on a regular basis, you really should.)

Second, this article from DownRange.TV by Larry Mudgett, who is a pre-eminent firearms trainer and was an LA Police officer and firearms instructor for decades..  Although technically about rifles, it gives an over view of several riots and the damage they did, from the 1960s through today.

So, here we have feedback from two guys on the ground in riots; let’s benefit from their experience.

The first lesson would be to avoid a riot at all costs. As members of law enforcement, the authors had to be there.  We don’t.  So do the obvious and stay out of a riot.  For example, if you know they are going to hand down a verdict on a sensitive case that has people up in arms, then stay away from the courthouse and out of the downtown area.  If you hear media reports of a riot if your city, avoid the area.  If you work downtown, go home, and take a route that avoids the trouble, even if you have to drive dozens of miles out of your way.

Keep in mid that riots spread.  A riot in Los Angeles may lead to sympathetic rioting in another major city.  I recommend avoiding any major inner city or downtown area if there is a riot in another city.

The second lesson is that if you cannot leave or avoid a riot, accurate rifle fire from military-style assault weapons is your best defense.  The more of it, the better.  Note that “accurate” is a key modifier her – having a gun does little if you are not trained in how to use it.  You must also be mentally capable of shooting people because shooting 10 people at the front of the crowd is more likely to break it up or send them looking for easier prey than simply brandishing a weapon.

Third, do not expect what happens in a riot to make sense.  Do not expect rioters to do the obvious or smart thing.  Keep your eyes open and your wits about you and do not expect to be able to predict mob behavior.  Be flexible and ready to respond to any situation.  Do not be trapped by your preconceived notions or expectations and keep in mind that just because something has not happened before does not mean that it cannot happen in the future.

Fourth, do not expect law enforcement or fire and rescue to respond to your calls for help.  You need to be prepared to survive on your own.

If we look at a riot, it can be broken down into stages. Your role as a survivalist differs in each stage:

Stage 1: A period of increased tension.  This is the time to get out of Dodge.

Stage 2: The riot.  This is when all hell breaks loose and is a period of insanity and chaos characterized by general lawlessness, looting, arson, wanton killings, etc.  This is a period of maximum danger when you must be ready to use force to protect yourself.

Stage 3:  Simmering.  Things have quieted down, possibly because the rioters are tired, drunk, drugged or otherwise sated.  Authorities begin to exert control, but it is note yet clear that they can achieve it.  Often, step 3 can lead back to step 2, which is why there are reports of “four days of rioting.” (This does not mean 96 hours of continuous rioting — it means episodes of rioting over a four-day period.)  For example, the civil authorities might be able to keep the peace during the day, but riots may break out again at night.  Or, rioting may break out id a different location where there is not as much law enforcement.

During stage 3, survivalists should focus on getting ready for a re-ignition of the riot. That means clean and service your weapons, reload magazines, strengthen your defensive position, and refine your  strategy and tactics. Eat, treat any minor wounds, monitor media reports, and sleep in shifts some someone is always awake and on watch.  If you need to evacuate wounded or decide to bug out, this is the time to do it.

Stage 4: An uneasy truce.  Rioting has ended for 48 hours or more.  There is a visible law enforcement presence.  Ringleaders have been thrown in jail.  National Guard or military personnel are manning the streets.  This can lead to stage 4, or back to stage 1.  Preppers can stand down some, but must monitor the news to ensure things are really calming down.

Stage 5: The riot is officially over.  Politicians and community leaders make speeches, but chances are, nothing has really changed.  Preppers need to re-evaluate their plans and preparations based on their experience.  Restock, resupply and prepare for the next time.

About the only good thing you can say about a riot is that they end — eventually.  Your primary objective is to remain safe throughout the period of civil unrest.  Your secondary objective is to protect your property.

Finally, let me add that in today’s litigious society, anyone who shoots rioters has to be prepared to be considered a criminal after the riots are over.  During the Rodney King riots, the Korean shop keepers were considered heroes.  Today, the danger is that a liberal attorney general might consider the blood stains and piles of fired brass in front of their buildings to be evidence of a crime.  Perhaps they deprived some minority of their civil rights by shooting them instead of allowing their store to be looted or burned.  If possible, consider video taping scenes of the riot that can be used to demonstrate that you shot in self defense.

“Amateurs practice until they get it right.  Professionals practice until they can’t get it wrong.”

In my opinion, preparing to survive an end of the world as we know it moment is not something you do once; it’s a continuum and lifestyle choice that requires the proper mindset.

You can spend $5,000 or $50,000 on preparations and feel better, but you won’t really be prepared unless you commit to the lifestyle of a prepper or a survivalist.  You may have a powerful generator, a safe full of guns and ammo, and a bomb shelter with a years supply of food, but to be fully prepared requires knowledge, practice and experience.  That powerful generator will do no good if the gasoline has gone bad and gummed it up because you didn’t know enough to run it under a load once every couple of weeks.  The most accurate rifle in the world needs a skilled shooter who is cool under pressure.  A bomb shelter is not the end all and be all of survival.  (I will never forget the bomb shelter I toured in a private home that had a ceiling that was three feet of concrete, yet had no provisions for water, sewer, ventillation or communications.  Exactly how long are you planning to survive in there?)

Don’t get me wrong; money helps.  From a goods, gear, and equipment perspective, you can stock up more quickly and more thoroughly if you have plenty of money to throw at the problem. Having the gear is a good start, but if you never tried to plant a garden or grind your own grain, skin a rabbit, or use that chainsaw, are you really prepared?

In my opinion, anyone who takes their preparations seriously needs to focus as much time on practicing old skills and acquiring new ones as they do on squirreling away gear.  Because as great as it is to have all sorts of gear, you can only carry so much with you.  That means you may find yourself in a survival situation when you are far from your bomb shelter, generator, armory, and pantry.

Assume that you are 70 miles away from home and a sunspot or nuclear EMP blasts knocks out all electronics, including your vehicle.  Do you have the skills to find your way back home?  Do you have the stamina to walk that far?  Do you have the gear you will need to survive the trip?  Do you have the knowledge and tools to procure food on the way?  Can you avoid trouble or emerge victorious if it cannot be avoided?  Will your family be there when you arrive?  Will they be safe and secure?

One of the objectives of Captain Dave’s Survival Center is to provide information that will help people survive a disaster and its aftermath.  What you do with the information is up to you.  YOU must provide the experience and the practice.

“With the US trapped in depression, this really is starting to feel like 1932″

This is the headline for an article from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the UK’s Telegraph.  He takes a look at the recent economic data for the U.S.   His view is clearer and less subjective than that of may U.S. media reports.

Many recent media reports have focused on the falling unemployment rate.  This article clearly points out that 652,000 people lost their jobs in June and the only reason the unemployment rate is not higher is because roughly a million Americans just gave up and stopped looking for a job over the past two months.

Yesterday during a bomb scare, a local county sheriff deputy and SWAT team member shot himself in the bicep with his M16 rifle.  The officer reportedly required surgery, and I hope that he will be OK and is not disabled as a result of this negligent discharge.

I have very few details of the shooting and am certain I am not alone in questioning how it happened, but let’s give the deputy the benefit of the doubt and assume that his finger was not on the trigger.  Maybe he had a very short barrel and was using a tactical sling to hold the weapon across his chest and something like his hydration pack hose got caught in the trigger guard and caught the trigger, firing the weapon.  Whatever the case —  accidental, mechanical, or negligent – it should serve as a reminder to all of us who use or carry guns that they can be dangerous tools and we need to follow the basic rules of gun safety at all times.

The following are my personal version of the basic rules of gun safety.  The wording may vary a little from what you learned, but these have worked for me.

1. Always keep the muzzle of your gun pointed in a safe direction. Do not point it at anything you would not want to see destroyed.
2. Keep your finger off the trigger until you are on target and ready to shoot.
3. Treat every gun as if it is loaded until you have checked and double checked.
4. Be sure of your target and what is behind it.  You are responsible for your bullet even if you miss your target. (This part is why I do not usually consider up to be a safe direction.)
5. Make sure those around you are following the same safety rules.
6. Use common sense around guns, don’t handle them when you are tired or distracted,  and don’t be an idiot.  (I find that this covers just about every situation the first 5 do not.)

Following these rules will make you a safer gun handler and help minimize injurious negligent discharges.  Here are a couple examples.

I was at the range last weekend and two guys from Fort Bragg stepped  up to the firing line, loaded magazines into their guns, fired a few rounds, screwed a suppressor onto the muzzle and fired a few more rounds. What I found troubling is that they screwed a suppressor on to the end of a weapon that was not only loaded but apparently had a chambered round.  To do this, the shooter pointed the muzzle of his gun at his hand several times during this process, a violation of rule 1.  I would say that he also violated the intent of rule 3 because screwing the safety on would have been much safer to do with an empty gun with the bolt locked back.  Perhaps because he adhered to rule 2 and kept his finger off the trigger, there was no negligent discharge and he was not injured, but the casual manner in which he pointed the weapon at his hand was appalling to someone like me who has had the basic safety rule drilled into their head for decades.

A few weeks prior, I saw a negligent discharge at an Appleseed shoot I attended.  The shooter loaded on the load command, aimed at the target and then fired without waiting for the fire command.  No harm was done because the gun was pointed in a safe direction (specifically, downrange and at the target, about as safe as you can get).  So by adhering to rule 1, the shooter was embarrassed, but there were no injuries.

Just as safe drivers get into accidents, safe gun handlers do too.  Following the basic safety rules will help eliminate the chance of an accidental discharge and minimize or any damage to life, limb or property that might result.

I received an email from a customer that was interested in buying one of our small camp stoves to install in his house “in the event of an emergency.”

While I have to give this fellow credit for thinking ahead (it is 98 degrees here!), he gets points taken away for failing to fully commit.  He is ready to prepare and he is on the right track, but he just has not made that final leap.  In short, he was taking a half measure, possibly because he did not think he would ever need to use the stove.

My advice to him was don’t buy a small tent stove and expect it to heat your house.  Buy a stove designed and sized for your home and get it installed now, while you can do it safely.  Then you can learn to use it before it is a life and death emergency and you can’t figure out how stop the smoke that keeps blowing back into your house.

Can you imagine a scenario where there has been a blizzard or an ice storm, power is out for miles in every direction, the kids are cold, the wife is cranky, and you are sitting there looking at a big heavy box saying “Don’t worry, I’ll have this stove installed in a jiffy!”

Now think about the requirements to install a stove.  The last time I did it, I had to call all around to find somewhere that sold the fire bricks with which I had to be line the bottom of the stove.  Then I had to have a special part that allowed the stove pipe to penetrate the roof without setting the roof on fire – and of course it was sold separately from the stove and it he opposite direction of the fire bricks.  Then I had to cut holes in the ceiling and the roof, and flash the roof hole so no water would get in.  There are also code requirements related to how far the stove pipe has to be above the peak of the roof, and if it sticks up pretty far you may need guy wires to hold it in place.  You also have to cover it to keep out rain, nesting birds, and critters like possums  who may want to crawl in there when the stove is not in use.

In short, installing a wood burning stove is not a project I would want to do with a foot of snow on the roof, no power tools, and no access to outside resources.

Secondly, I have had the dubious pleasure of spending the night in a small hunting shack with a little wood burning stove while the wind howled outside.  Despite my sleeping bag, I had to get up every two or three hours and add wood to the stove.  Not the most restful of nights.  Taught me the downside of a small stove that burns logs only two or three inches in diameter.  If you think you need a wood stove, my advice is to get one big enough to hold plenty of large logs so you can generate heat for hours.

Don’t Wait Until the Last Minute

I’ll be the first to admit that I carry a list of things that I plan to rush out to Costco to buy if I have advanced notice of an impending disaster – like news reports of a nuclear bomb going off far away or an outbreak of Bird Flu that is headed this way.  This list is mostly things with a short shelf life, like bags of potatoes and onions, and fresh eggs.  These are nice to have, if time allows, but my survival food plan is not “stop by Costco and stock up.”

Yet I have found that many people actually plan on preparing only when they

kn

ow an emergency is imminent or after an emergency strikes.  These are invariably the poor souls you see on TV after a hurricane waiting in line for ice and water.  Because preparing AFTER an emergency is no plan at all and preparing when you are looking at th

e face of disaster is a good way to experience the down side of the law of supply and demand.

Don’t wait to start your preparations.  Do it now.

In considering Israel’s position (see yesterday’s post) I am reminded of the following quote by Winston Churchill:

If you will not fight when you can easily win, without bloodshed, and if you still will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly, you may well come to the moment when you will have no choice but to fight with the odds against you, and you have only a small chance of survival.  There may even be a worse case: you may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, simply because it is better to perish as warriors than to live as slaves.

One has to assume the Israelis are smart enough to act early in the progression Churchill laid out.   I believe they are well past the first stage, but not yet to the third.  That leaves them late in the victory “is not too costly” category.  Another reason they will need to act soon.  The “small chance of survival” stage starts as soon as Iran has a nuclear weapon.

When they took out Saddam Hussein’s nuclear facility in Iraq in 1981, the Israeli’s targeted only the nuclear plant, which was not yet complete.  This time around, Israel would be smart to target the Iranian leadership as well as their many nuclear facilities (most of which are hidden, buried, hardened targets).  If you are going to go to war, you might as well kick it off with a massive, devastating surprise attack like the Japanese did at Pearl Harbor.  If Israel succeeds in eliminating parts of the hardliner leadership, Iran may be unable to effectively respond to an attack.

An interesting backgrounder on a possible Israeli attack on Iran can be found on the Heritage Foundation web site. It’s worth reading.